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Political Analysis

19 Sha’aban 1432


What events resulted in Iran agreeing to enriching (Uranium) outside its territories in Turkey and to sign an agreement to that effect with Brazil and Turkey?

4th Jumadah al-thania, 1431 A.H


Many things have quickly materialised in Kyrgyzstan. The Opposition moved to oust Bakiyev on 08/04/2010 and succeeded in doing so. They seized authority and Bakiyev fled to his hometown in the south of the country. Then today, the 16/04/2010, he forwarded his resignation and left for Kazakistan. At the same time one of the first countries to recognize the revolution and ‘bless’ it was Russia such that the interim Prime Minister Roza Otunbayeva engaged in official (phone) talks between herself and the Russian Prime Minister Vladmir Putin on Thursday 08/04/2010, the very day the interim government took control. This means that Russia is behind what has occurred. If this is correct then how is it that Russia has ousted Bakiyev whilst she herself brought him to power in the revolution against Akayev in 2005, and supported his most recent election on 23/07/2009? Was his not closing the American military based in Manas the cause which provoked Russia to oust him?

02 Jumada al-Awwal 1431 AH


Question: The second phase of the presidential elections was held in Ukraine on 2nd February, 2010. In the first phase of the polls, Victor Yusichenko, who had come to power in the wake of the ‘Orange Revolution’, bagged merely 5% of the votes and in the second phase, he was unable to compete. While Yanukovych and Tymoshenko won 35% and 25% of the votes in the first phase and entered the second round. Indeed Victor Yanukovych who is pro-Russia and has served earlier as Prime Minister and also as President in 2004 polled 48% of the votes in the second round against his rival Tymoshenko who bagged 46% of votes, and thus he has again become the president of the republic. Does this mean the end of the era of the ‘Orange Revolution’ and return of Ukraine in the Russian lobby? How will the US-Russian rivalry affect Ukraine in the coming era?

4th Rabee ul Awwal, 1431 A.H


Question: Military Sources in Niger announed on Thursday, 18th February that soldiers led by Major Adam Haroun staged military coup against President Mohammed Tanja and declared that the the president and members of government have been detained at aplace in the vicinity of the presential palace in the capital Niami. The also annopunced the suspension of the constitution and dissolution of governmental establishments. Is this miliatary coup similar to others coups in the past in Niger which have been due to local conflicts between the influential French agents in this former French colony, or is it a reflection of international conconflict? May Allah reward you!

6th Rabee’ ul Awwal, 1431 A.H


Question: On January 29th, 2010, the Obama administration announced that the US Congress has been informed of its plan to sell 6.40 billion dolloars of weapons to Taiwan which include Black Hawk helicopters, Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missiles, mine hunter ships and information technology for F-16 fighter aircrafts.

16th Safar, 1431 A.H


Question: Of late, a near-constant tension between the Peoples Movement and the National Conference: the peoples movement held the Juba Conference together with the opposition forces, also the intense debates are being held and processions are being organised… This is despite the fact that the Peoples Movement is in power and not in the opposition. Further, the European and African visits by Salva Kiir Mayardit. Moreover the reports regarding the failure of the US envoy Scott Gration, and the parliament’s decision this week regarding National Security Law despite the opposition of the SPLM. Further, today, December 22nd, 2009, the parliament approved the National Referendum Law during its session which was boycotted by the SPLM. Can it be said that this is a real conflict is between the SPLM and the Peoples Conference? And if so, does this mean that the Peoples Movements loyalty has shifted from the US to Europe and especially tilted towards Britain? Or otherwise, this is a mere outward tension being stage-managed by the US?

5th Muharram 1431 A.H


12th Shawwal, 1431 A.H


Question: Recently there has been some analyses in the media, especially the European and the American media regarding the next Egyptian president to succeed Hosni Mubarak who reportedly will not be renominated for the presidential elections scheduled in 2011 C.E. These reports have cited the names of Gamal Mubarak, Ayman Nour, Mohammed El-Baradaei and Amr Moussa among others, and among them Gamal Mubarak and Ayman Nour’s names are being touted as favourites…
We know that Jamal Mubarak has his loyalties to the US just like his father, does Ayman Nour also shares the same loyalty especially because he was released from his previous detention just before Obama’s visit to Egypt? Or is Ayman Nour loyal to the Europeans? If this is correct, then does this mean that Europe and especially Britain are looking forward to get a foothold in Egyprt after all these years of American stronghold in Egypt?

28th Dhul Hijjah, 1430 A.H


Question: What is the current situation in Yemen? Is this a local religious conflict wherein the Houthi people are pitched against the state? Or is this an international conflict wherein the local tools are being used? Please clarify, may Allah reward you.

11th Dhull Hijjah, 1430 A.H


The Secretary-General of NATO, Rasmussen, said yesterday, 23/10/2009, that NATO welcomes the plans for missile defense in accordance with Obama’s plan, as the Czech Republic confirmed that she is ready to be part of this defense system, only two days after Poland’s accepted. How is that?! Did not President Obama announce his plans to abandon installation of interceptor missiles in Poland and a radar site in the Czech Republic on 17/9/2009? Or was Obama’s declaration to abandon not real, rather to trick Russia to lower her guard temporarily? If this is so, has America under Obama come to account for the growing strength of Russia and designed to appease Russia’s security concerns? And does this also mean that America’s military been shaken such that her control of the international situation has weakened?

5 Dhul-Qa’adah 1430


Question: What made Iran change its stance regarding uranium enrichment? For years it insisted that enrichment must occur in Iran and not in a foreign country. However today, after the Geneva talks, and specifically after the US-Iranian bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Geneva talks, officials have said that Iranians now agree to what they had refused previously? We hope that you clarify this matter. May Allah reward you.

16 Shawal 1430


Question: It is noted that the political situation in West Turkistan (Central Asia:-Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan), is in a volatile state, sometimes we find such and such ruler under the mantle of Russia and after a while he rushes toward America ... and so on, can you clarify the current political situation in these republics? Jazaakum Allah Khairun.

29 Ramadan 1430 H


Question: What is the issue of planting mines along the Syrian-Turkey border?How and when did it happen? To what extent is this linked to the international conflict? May Allah reward you for it.

10th Rajab, 1430 A.H


Question: North Korea announced on 25th May, 2009, that it carried out a successful nuclear test. It had earlier (on 8th May) warned that it was strengthening its nuclear arsenal, and accusing the Obama administration of hostile actions against it, had also refused to resume the six-party negotiations. Then on 27th May, 2009, it declared that North Korea was ‘not committed to the ceasing of hostilities‘ signed with the United States. This refusal was in response to South Korea’s participation in the American initiative to prevent nuclear proliferation. [al-Jazeerah: 31.05.09].
What is the reaction of the international community towards these events? Are these leading to an escalation of tensions and war…, or is a war ruled out; will negotiations be resumed?

7th Jumadah al thani, 1430 A.H


Question: Lately, the western media has speculated that the worst of the financial crisis is over and that the economies of some western countries are showing signs of economic recovery—the first green shoots, so to speak of. The media reports are often supported by economic experts and politicians who point to the buoyant stock markets, bank profits and the rise in the price of oil as evidence that the world economy has finally reached the bottom and is on the path of recovery. Hence the question arises is the western world really witnessing an economic revival or is it all media hype designed to instil confidence in the global financial system and prolong the crisis? And if this is the case, then why it is noticed such rise in the oil price, bank profits and buoyant stock markets? 

6 Jumadah 2nd 1430


The question:
On 19/5/2009 speaking on state television Sri Lanka’s President Mahinda Rajapaksa declared victory against the Tamil Tigers. He said, “Our motherland has been completely liberated from separatist terrorism.” The state television also broadcasted images of the Tamil Tiger leader’s body after it was recovered from the battlefield. “A few hours ago, the body of terrorist leader (Velupillai) Prabhakaran, who ruined this country, was found on the battleground,” army Chief Gen. Sarath Fonseka told state television. In his victory speech the President Rajapaksa was anxious to strike a reconciliatory tone with Tamil people. He said,”Our intention was to save the Tamil people from the cruel grip of the (rebels). We all must now live as equals in this free country.”
What is the reality of the conflict in Sri Lanka? Is it a local or regional conflict or an international conflict? In who’s favor was the result of this conflict? Is it possible to say that the conflict in the island has come to an end or not?

28 Jumada Alola 1430


Question 1: The 21st Arab summit was held on Monday, 30th March, 2009 and instead of the scheduled 2 dyas of deliberations, it was all over in one day itself. How far can its resolutions be effective?

Question 2:  The Turkish President Abdullah Gül paid a two-day visit to Iraq on 23rd March, 2009. This was the first visit by a Turkish President to Iraq in 33 years. He met the Iraqi President Talibani and the Prime Minister Noori al Maliki as well as the Kurdistan Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani….

Question 3: Sheikh Shareef Ahmad has become the president of Somalia, so does this indicate the resurgence of the Shar’iah courts as they were two years ago. If it is so, why is the al-Shabab Mujahideen Movement opposed to them though they a part of the courts or at least very cloase to them? ....

6th Rabee al Thani. 1430 A.H


Question: On February 15 2009, the Pakistani government announced that it had reached an agreement with the supporters of Pakistani Taliban, Tehrik Nifaz-i-Shariat Muhammadi (TNSM). The agreement contained provisions to enforce of Sharia law under the guise of Nizam-i-Adl Regulation’ in the Malakand region of Swat. In response the Taliban declared a truce to study the proposals. The Swat Taliban spokesman Muslim Khan said, “Taliban have declared a unilateral ceasefire for 10 days as a goodwill gesture. Our fighters will not attack security personnel and government installations.” However, he added that the militants would hold their positions and defend themselves if attacked. The deal has drawn much criticism both at home and abroad.

So what lies behind the deal? Will it bring lasting peace to Swat?

26th of Safer 1430H


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